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USDCAD Keeps To Oil-Induced Jump Higher, Canadian CPI Eyed

CANADA
  • USDCAD jumped 0.9% higher early in the session as oil slumped on an expected Iran nuclear deal and since then has seen relatively little change apart from a brief mover higher still with risk-off following a weak Empire survey.
  • Back at around the 1.29 mark from when the US came in, it’s seen solid outperformance to AUD and NZD vs 1.4% losses to the USD.
  • Today’s sharp increase reverses the prior extension of the bear leg and having cleared the 20-day EMA of 1.2855 opens resistance at 1.2985 (Aug 5 high) from the snap reaction higher following stellar US payrolls.
  • Latest CFTC positioning had non-commercial net longs extend to new highs since early July 2021 at 14.8% OI last week, which if still reflective of current positioning could potentially see pressure at tomorrow’s CPI. Consensus sees headline falling five tenths to 7.6% Y/Y with an average of 7.53% Y/Y and an analyst range of 7.0-7.8%.
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  • USDCAD jumped 0.9% higher early in the session as oil slumped on an expected Iran nuclear deal and since then has seen relatively little change apart from a brief mover higher still with risk-off following a weak Empire survey.
  • Back at around the 1.29 mark from when the US came in, it’s seen solid outperformance to AUD and NZD vs 1.4% losses to the USD.
  • Today’s sharp increase reverses the prior extension of the bear leg and having cleared the 20-day EMA of 1.2855 opens resistance at 1.2985 (Aug 5 high) from the snap reaction higher following stellar US payrolls.
  • Latest CFTC positioning had non-commercial net longs extend to new highs since early July 2021 at 14.8% OI last week, which if still reflective of current positioning could potentially see pressure at tomorrow’s CPI. Consensus sees headline falling five tenths to 7.6% Y/Y with an average of 7.53% Y/Y and an analyst range of 7.0-7.8%.