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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- USDCAD earlier touched a new recent high of 1.3800 with equity futures under pressure.
- It extended yesterday’s breach of prior highs at 1.3775 and cleared resistance at 1.3792 (Jun 11 high) for another strong step towards the bull trigger at 1.3846 (Apr 16 high).
- Ahead of today’s BoC decision, the 14-day RSI at 67.1 is getting close to overbought conditions.
- Further, CAD net shorts were at historical extremes last week (47% of open interest) in positioning that we feel could limit near-term sensitivity to any dovish surprises and at risk that the Bank is less dovish than some expect – see the preview here.
- Today’s climb is more USD-focused, with EURCAD now lower on the day at 1.4940 (post-weak German PMI) but still close to yesterday’s latest ytd high of 1.4996. It pierced downtrend resistance drawn from 2023 highs ahead of last week’s ECB decision and opened key targets of 1.5045 and 1.5113 for the cross.
- The Canadian trade-weighted exchange rate is very close to ytd lows, less than 0.1% above the Apr 16 low on the Deutsche Bank nominal index. That’s a 0.9% depreciation since the Jun 5 decision and 1.6% since shortly before the publication of the April MPR ahead of today’s fresh forecasts.
Deutsche Bank Canadian dollar trade-weighted exchange rateSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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