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USDCAD Nears Support, Large Expiry Helps Move In Near-Term

CANADA
  • USDCAD has extended yesterday’s decline to touch 1.3437 to reverse the almost 100 pip shift higher from the Wednesday’s strong US PMIs and somewhat of a dovish pivot from the BoC.
  • It's close to testing support at 1.3434 (20-day EMA), clearance of which could open 1.3343 (Jan 12 low).
  • Today’s largest option expiry for the NY cut is seen at 1.3390 (a solid $1.17bn), potentially helping bias the short-term move lower although the technical set-up is still seen as favouring a bullish outlook.
  • The US PCE report is in the spotlight. It will overshadow the Canadian wholesale trade advance for Dec, just like the US GDP/PCE Q4 advance did yesterday with CAD mfg sales (-0.6% M/M after +1.2%). Recall the retail sales Dec advance was a strong 0.8% M/M after -0.2%.

USDCAD 20-day EMA (green line)Source: Bloomberg

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