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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- USDCAD has steadily pushed higher through today’s US session, lifting off lows of 1.3415 to touch 1.3475, albeit only back into yesterday’s range.
- The earlier decline had seen a move closer to support at 1.3409 (20-day EMA) but bulls are seen remaining in the driving seat with resistance at 1.3542 (Jan 17 high).
- CAD and more so AUD and NZD underperform other G10 majors today despite solid gains for crude futures, further surprising considering the S&P e-mini has given up earlier gains but still sits +0.2% on the day.
- Near-term event risk comes from the overnight BoJ decision. Wednesday’s BoC follows soon after and we note there is relatively little bias from both the relatively low level of CAD net shorts in CFTC futures positioning and compared to historical REER trends.
- However, whilst the limited bias opens scope for moves in either direction, we note that correlation with the S&P 500 e-mini has been particularly high recently, at a little under -0.7 over the past 20 trading days. It’s quite possible that equity moves and broader risk sentiment will have greater sway on USDCAD on the day than a relative rates angle, barring any particularly large surprises.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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