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USDCAD Unwinds Some Of Post-Retail Sales Lift, Reasonable Expiry Ahead

CANADA
  • USDCAD trades close to session lows of 1.3454, with high beta peers generally holding up well despite a trimming of earlier gains for WTI and equity futures.
  • The pair remains within Friday’s ranges with 1.3424 seen prior to an on balance disappointing retail sales report. Support is seen at the post-CPI low of 1.3381 and resistance at 1.3519 (20-day EMA).
  • Latest CFTC data, released late Fri for Tue, showed CAD net shorts near unchanged on the week at 19.5% of OI, although that stood out compared to other high beta peers with AUD and NZD net shorts jumping to 44% and 41% - chart below.
  • Amidst lighter dockets in both the US and Canada, today sees decent cumulative option expiry for the NY cut at 1.3405 ($538m), 1.3425 ($565m) and 1.3472 ($556m).

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