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USDCLP At Cycle Highs, Path of Least Resistance Remains Higher

CHILE
  • Confirmation that surveyed economists are expecting another 100bp rate cut in April continues to undermine the Chilean peso and USDCLP has just risen to a fresh cycle high in recent trade. The pair maintains a positive tone following the recent extension of the bull cycle that started Dec 01 and has breached key resistance at 955.00, the Oct 16 ‘23 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens 985.84 next, the Oct 25 ‘22 high. BCCh minutes on Thursday remains the highlight on the local docket.
  • In local news, La Tercera reported that layoffs due to company necessity rose 11.5% last year and were around 460 thousand people. Despite this increase, experts see signs of improvement in the labour market.
    • “Starting in the second half of 2023, the deterioration began to moderate. The annual increase in layoffs due to company needs in July 2023 was 22.3%, decreasing persistently until reaching 1.3% in December 2023.
    • This behaviour goes hand in hand with what was observed in the figures from the National Employment Survey, where the annual increase in the unemployment rate also began to decrease in recent months,” says José Acuña, researcher at the Economic Context Observatory of the Diego Portales University (OECD-UDP).
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