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USDCLP Reverses Initial Weakness, Camara Swap Rates Remain Higher

CHILE
  • The Chilean peso rallied on the open, following higher than expected CPI inflation data, but has since retraced to leave it weaker against the dollar on the day, with the latest bout of post-IJC greenback strength assisting USDCLP to fresh session highs. Camara swap rates remain higher, with yields up by 3-6bp across much of the curve. CPI inflation printed at 3.8% y/y in January, down from 3.9% previously, but above the 3.5% consensus. This was the first data point to be calculated with the new 2023 base year, making comparison with previous data more difficult.
  • JPMorgan note that when adjusting for seasonality (acknowledging the uncertainty arising from the change in CPI weights), the m/m change did not deviate much from the prior 3-month average. As such, they do not believe these data will prevent BCCh from cutting further, but note the added uncertainty over the pace of rate cuts ahead. BCCh will not meet again until 2 April, when it will have also seen Feb CPI data.
  • Further large rate cuts could keep the peso under pressure. USDCLP maintains a positive tone, having previously broken key resistance at 955.00, with the next key level at 962.84, the Oct 25 ‘22 low. Clearance of this level would open 985.84, the Oct 25 ‘22 high.
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