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CNH: USD/CNH Drifting Lower Amid PBoC Stability Vow, Still Above Recent Lows

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USD/CNH is holding close to session lows, last near 7.3500. This is a modest CNH gain of around 0.15%. USD/CNY is a down in the first part of dealing, but is holding above 7.3300 at this stage. Recent lows in USD/CNH were at 7.3132, recorded last Monday. The 20-day EMA support level continues to track higher, last around 7.3250. 

  • We saw a raft of headlines earlier following an FX markets meeting in Beijing. The headlines were largely in line with on-going rhetoric around FX markets. Critically the PBoC noted that the yuan will stay at a reasonable balance level and that it will prevent FX overshooting.
  • It was also announcement that the cross-border macro prudential for local firms would be raised to 1.75 from 1.50. This allows local companies to raise more funds offshore and is designed to alleviate pressure on the yuan (by boosting the supply of offshore currencies onshore). The last time we had adjustment higher was in July 2023.
  • PBoC Governor Pan also made comments, which crossed the wires. He reiterated the comments around the yuan, while also noting liquidity will remain supported via RRR and interest rate cuts. This is in line with previous rhetoric from the Governor. Pan stated focus should be on supporting consumers, which comes after Vice Premier He Lifeng made similar remarks late on Friday.
  • Note we get retail sales data for Dec on Friday, as well as Q4 GDP.
  • Headlines on Dec trade figures are also starting to cross. 
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USD/CNH is holding close to session lows, last near 7.3500. This is a modest CNH gain of around 0.15%. USD/CNY is a down in the first part of dealing, but is holding above 7.3300 at this stage. Recent lows in USD/CNH were at 7.3132, recorded last Monday. The 20-day EMA support level continues to track higher, last around 7.3250. 

  • We saw a raft of headlines earlier following an FX markets meeting in Beijing. The headlines were largely in line with on-going rhetoric around FX markets. Critically the PBoC noted that the yuan will stay at a reasonable balance level and that it will prevent FX overshooting.
  • It was also announcement that the cross-border macro prudential for local firms would be raised to 1.75 from 1.50. This allows local companies to raise more funds offshore and is designed to alleviate pressure on the yuan (by boosting the supply of offshore currencies onshore). The last time we had adjustment higher was in July 2023.
  • PBoC Governor Pan also made comments, which crossed the wires. He reiterated the comments around the yuan, while also noting liquidity will remain supported via RRR and interest rate cuts. This is in line with previous rhetoric from the Governor. Pan stated focus should be on supporting consumers, which comes after Vice Premier He Lifeng made similar remarks late on Friday.
  • Note we get retail sales data for Dec on Friday, as well as Q4 GDP.
  • Headlines on Dec trade figures are also starting to cross.