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CHINA: USDCNH is off its early highs but still up on the day as the 6.70 level
now acts as support. Upside pressure is building amid renewed fears over
US-China trade talks and increasingly dovish PBOC policy. The Jan 22 high at
6.8188 is the next upside target, above which would reignite upside momentum.
- After a few weeks of outperformance regional yuan crosses are giving back
gains with CNHJPY threatening to roll over should the 21-dma give way just below
current levels. CNHKRW is also just off daily lows as the 200-dma support level
comes back into play.
- The ongoing narrowing between the 12 month NDF outright and USDCNH suggests
caution is warranted from a contrarian perspective as depreciation fears have
- The reopening of Hong Kong stocks has been met with selling pressure with the
Hang Seng down .06% and the Hang Seng China Index down almost 1.0%, although
both indices have recovered most of their early losses. Both the HSI and HSCEI
are looking to recover their 200-dmas after losing these levels at the open.