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USDMXN Bears In Control, Banxico In Focus

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso continues to trade towards its best levels, following last weeks breakout for USDMXN below 19.75 support. The pair now has its sights on 19.4136, the May 30 low. Consumer confidence come in unchanged from the prior month at 41.0, whereas gross fixed investment had an uptick to 6.5% in August against a surveyed estimate of 3.6%. October inflation data will be released on Wednesday where core CPI is expected to increase to 8.44% Y/y.
  • Continued pressure on core inflation metrics should prompt Banxico to maintain its aggressive monetary tightening pace on Thursday. Currently, almost all analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting another 75bp hike, bringing the overnight rate to 10.00%.
  • Rhetoric between meetings has been limited apart from the well-known dove, Gerardo Esquivel, highlighting that is not imperative that the central bank matches the Federal Reserve, setting up the potential for a split vote at the November meeting.
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