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USDMXN Consolidates Back Below 19.00, CPI In Focus

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso has recovered from last week’s shock of weak US retail sales and industrial production data and USDMXN is now consolidating back below the 19.00 handle having stalled at firm initial resistance of the 20-day EMA. This average now intersects 19.0727.
  • As noted, bi-weekly inflation data is due tomorrow and both headline and core annual inflation are expected to dip to 7.83% and 8.32% respectively. This will be the penultimate CPI data point before the next Banxico meeting on Feb 09, however, the January data will be released the morning of the same day.
  • On Friday, Citi published the results of its biweekly analysts’ survey. They expect the next rate move to be a 25bps increase in February. The 2023 year-end inflation estimate was revised from 5.02% to 5.10%. 2024 year-end inflation is seen steady at 4.00%.
  • Today, Grupo Financiero Banorte holds a breakfast meeting with press to discuss its 2023 economic outlook after reporting fourth-quarter earnings last week.
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