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USDMXN Prints Fresh Cycle Low, JPMorgan On Inflation Data

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso came roaring back in typical fashion on Wednesday with any bounces for USDMXN (-0.61%) continuing to be well sold into. The technical downtrend remains intact, and the pair’s bearish extension last week confirmed a recent bear flag formation on the daily chart, reinforcing the trend.
    • The focus remains on 17.9401, the 2018 low, despite price briefly dipping below it during today’s session. A sustained break of this level would open 17.5746, the Aug 25 2017 low, with short-term resistance moving down to 18.3603, the 20-day EMA.
  • February inflation data is due tomorrow at 1200GMT/0600Local, where headline and core inflation are expected to dip to 7.68% and 8.35% respectively.
  • JPMorgan noted that this week’s final CPI print should reinforce their lingering concerns on sticky underlying inflation. However, beyond these aggregate measures, their focus remains on sequential core inflation for guidance on the underlying trend. On the surface, core price momentum is modestly slowing but there are several caveats which include the fact that price gains sustained at 0.6% m/m are consistent with near 7.5%oya inflation in one year’s time, about 2.5 times the central bank’s target.
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