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USDMXN Rises To Fresh Weekly High, TIIE Swap Rates Decline

MEXICO
  • Following the weaker-than-expected bi-weekly CPI data earlier, we are seeing a meaningful move lower in the TIIE swaps curve, with yields 6-9bp lower across the curve. USDMXN is also moving higher, edging above 17.10 to its highest since Feb 14 in recent trade, alongside the recovery in the greenback.
  • CPI inflation fell to 4.45% y/y in the first half of February, down from 4.87% previously and below the 4.7% consensus, driven by a decline in non-core food prices. Core inflation also moderated to 4.63%, from 4.75%, also below expectations. With price pressures continuing to ease and Banxico having adopted a more dovish stance at its Feb 8 MPC meeting, the market is now pricing a growing likelihood of a first cut at the March 21 policy meeting.
  • Mexico TIIE Swaps:
    • 1-yr -7 bps at 10.70%
    • 2-yr -9 bps at 9.66%
    • 5-yr -6 bps at 8.66%
    • 10-yr -6 bps at 8.63%
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