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USDPLN Breaks Below 4.40 Support

POLAND
  • USDPLN has been retracing lower this week, breaking below the 4.40 support; next level to watch on the downside stands at 4.3340 (50DMA). On the topside, ST resistance to watch stands at 4.4450.
  • The ‘positive’ momentum on PLN has led to a slight rebound in Polish equities in the past week, with WIG20 index consolidating towards the 1,800 level after finding a local low at 1,652.30 last week.
  • The chart shows that the Polish equities have historically strong co-moved with the USDPLN exchange rate; periods of PLN strength have been associated with equity strength (and vice versa) in the past cycle.
  • However, the lack of visibility and convictions in markets (particularly in Europe) could challenge risky assets in the near term, with market uncertainty maintaining implied vol elevated in the coming weeks.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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  • USDPLN has been retracing lower this week, breaking below the 4.40 support; next level to watch on the downside stands at 4.3340 (50DMA). On the topside, ST resistance to watch stands at 4.4450.
  • The ‘positive’ momentum on PLN has led to a slight rebound in Polish equities in the past week, with WIG20 index consolidating towards the 1,800 level after finding a local low at 1,652.30 last week.
  • The chart shows that the Polish equities have historically strong co-moved with the USDPLN exchange rate; periods of PLN strength have been associated with equity strength (and vice versa) in the past cycle.
  • However, the lack of visibility and convictions in markets (particularly in Europe) could challenge risky assets in the near term, with market uncertainty maintaining implied vol elevated in the coming weeks.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI