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USDPLN Fails to Break Through 3.90 Resistance

POLAND
  • Investors will focus on July CPI inflation print coming out on July 30, which is expected to increase to 4.7% (from 4.4%) according to sell side estimates.
  • November inflation projections and July and August CPI inflation prints will be key for policy outlook.
  • As a reminder, three out of the eight NBP policymakers sought to raise rates at the last meeting in June, implying that the majority (including governor Glapinski) is still aiming to keep financial conditions as loose as possible for the moment.
  • USDPLN has been retracing lower in the past two days after failing to break through its 3.90 resistance yesterday; support to watch on the downside stands at 3.85, followed by 3.83. On the topside, key resistance remains at 3.98 (March 31 high).
  • Poland 10Y yield is flat this morning after retracing sharply higher yesterday, breaking above its 100DMA at 1.66%; next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 1.73%. On the downside, first support stands at 1.60%.
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