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USDPLN Struggles To Break Through Its 3.90 Resistance

POLAND
  • 2023 breakeven inflation has stabilized at around 3.50% in the past two weeks (which corresponds to the NBP upper tolerance band), down nearly 30bps since its high of 3.78% reached in early June.
  • Investors will focus on July CPI print coming out on July 30, expected to rise to 4.7% (from 4.4% the previous months) according to sell-side estimates.
  • The 10Y yield opened significantly higher this morning, up 15bps to 1.65%; next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 1.66% (100DMA), followed by 1.71%. On the downside, first support now stands at 1.60%, followed by 1.50%.
  • USDPLN has struggled to break through its 3.90 resistance in the past 10 days after trending higher in the first half of July; key resistance to watch on the topside remains at 3.98 (March 31 high). On the downside, first support stands at 3.85, followed by 3.83.
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