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USDTRY Continues To Test Key Resistance at 16

TURKEY
  • TRY has been weakening this month as political divergence combined with the ‘dovish’ CBRT continue to weigh on the Lira.
  • Inflation expectations have been rising; economic data showed yesterday that expected inflation for the next 12 months have increased from 28.4% to 33.3%.
  • CBRT survey revealed that year-end forecast increased to 58% (from 46% previously); some sell-side analysts are forecasting that inflation could surge up to 70% by the end of 2022.
  • The CBRT is meeting on May 26 and is expected to leave its benchmark rate steady at 14%.
  • Ministry of Treasury & Finance holds meeting to tackle food inflation (BBG).
  • USDTRY has been testing its key ST resistance at 16 after retracing higher this month.
  • Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 16.4490 (76.4% Fibo retracement of the 10.2510 – 18.3630 range).

Source: Bloomberg

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