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Used Cars Softer Than Expected But Otherwise Main Noisy Items All In Line

US DATA
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  • Core Services CPI (0.41% after 0.52% M/M) led the moderation in core CPI in April with only marginal change for Core Goods (-0.11% after -0.15% M/M).
  • The below contributions chart shows various categories behind the M/M moderation.
  • Of the main components that can swing M/M, used cars were softer than expected at -1.4% M/M after -1.1%. We’d seen average of -0.4% M/M ranging from -1.3% to +0.3%.
  • Lodging away from home printed -0.16% M/M vs an analyst average of -0.1%.

No surprises in the PPI-relevant categories that had been watched closely:

  • Vehicle insurance: 1.76% M/M after +2.6% in Mar. We saw an analyst average of +1.7% M/M, ranging from 1.5-1.9. [It's still a large outright contribution to core CPI but remember that for PCE, we already know that PPI auto insurance moderated from 0.3% to just 0.1%]
  • Airfares: -0.8% M/M after -0.4% in Mar. We saw an analyst average of -0.8% M/M, ranging from -2.5 to +0.5. [Remember that for PCE, we already know that PPI airfares fell -3.8% in Apr after +1.7%]
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  • Core Services CPI (0.41% after 0.52% M/M) led the moderation in core CPI in April with only marginal change for Core Goods (-0.11% after -0.15% M/M).
  • The below contributions chart shows various categories behind the M/M moderation.
  • Of the main components that can swing M/M, used cars were softer than expected at -1.4% M/M after -1.1%. We’d seen average of -0.4% M/M ranging from -1.3% to +0.3%.
  • Lodging away from home printed -0.16% M/M vs an analyst average of -0.1%.

No surprises in the PPI-relevant categories that had been watched closely:

  • Vehicle insurance: 1.76% M/M after +2.6% in Mar. We saw an analyst average of +1.7% M/M, ranging from 1.5-1.9. [It's still a large outright contribution to core CPI but remember that for PCE, we already know that PPI auto insurance moderated from 0.3% to just 0.1%]
  • Airfares: -0.8% M/M after -0.4% in Mar. We saw an analyst average of -0.8% M/M, ranging from -2.5 to +0.5. [Remember that for PCE, we already know that PPI airfares fell -3.8% in Apr after +1.7%]