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UTJ Ultimatum Rattles Coalition Stability

ISRAEL

As noted in an earlier bullet, the Israeli shekel has weakened against the US dollar today, with political uncertainty surrounding the stability of PM Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition in focus. Speaking to the Haredi outlet Hamechadesh, Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf stated that when the Knesset reconvenes on 15 October, if the coalition does not advance a draft law exempting Haredi Jews from military service he will pull his ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party out of the coalition, denying Netanyahu's gov't a majority.

  • Times of Israel: "...coalition members have increasingly warned they will not support a blanket exemption.At least six lawmakers for Likud have said in private that they won’t vote for the currently planned bill, Army Radio reported last month. Kan cited an unnamed coalition MK who warned that the draft law, not the ultra-divisive judicial overhaul, could end up being the government’s downfall."
  • The draft law exposes major schisms within Netanyahu's right-wing coalition between the ultra-Orthodox Shas and UTJ parties, in favour of blanket exemptions for Haredi men from military service, and those opposed including Netanyahu's Likud and the far-right Religious Zionism and Otzma-Yehudit.
  • UTJ holds seven seats in the Knesset. With the Netanyahu gov't made up of 64 members in the 120-seat legislature, the potential loss of the UTJ MKs would be enough to oust the gov't should it side with the opposition in any no confidence votes.
Chart 1. Israeli Knesset, Seats

Source: knesset.gov.il, MNI

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