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Vacancies Drop Further As Labor Moderation Continues

CANADA DATA
  • Today’s SEPH report shows another sizeable decline in job vacancies in July, dropping a seasonally adjusted -5.8% M/M after the -4.3% M/M in June.
  • These two sharp reductions saw the vacancy rate fall a further 0.3pp to 3.9% for its lowest since Feb’21 albeit still above the 3.2% averaged in 2019.
  • The moderation ties in with the drifting higher in the unemployment rate, a move that has since slowed somewhat in latest data for August from 5.47 to 5.52% in a move that surprised consensus of 5.6%.
  • As for comparisons with the US, the August payrolls report did see a surprise 0.3pp jump to 3.8% after months of a surprisingly tight 3.4-3.6%, although even then the US labor market hasn’t shown the same degree of moderation off historically tight levels.
  • See the Beveridge Curves below.

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