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Very Modest Dovish Moves In GBP STIRs

STIR

Increased geopolitical tension surrounding Israel and Iran allowed Bunds & U.S. Tsys to rally after yesterday’s gilt close, but core global bonds have faded from best levels, limiting the feedthrough into GBP STIRs.

  • SONIA futures are unchanged to +2.0 through the blues as a result.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~74bp of ’24 cuts, with ~19bp of cuts priced through the June MPC. ’24 BoE-dated OIS contracts are 1-2bp lower on the day.
  • Halifax house price data revealed the first M/M fall in 6 months, but that shouldn’t be a market mover.
  • Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. NFP release are set to dominate ahead of the weekend, with no major domestic risk events scheduled.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.138-5.7
Jun-245.005-19.0
Aug-244.849-34.6
Sep-244.728-46.8
Nov-244.576-61.9
Dec-244.454-74.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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