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Victoria PLC placed on negative outlook

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Victoria PLC, the flooring retailer, (VCPLN Snr Secured 26/28's; B2 Neg/B+ Neg/BB+ S) {VCP LN Equity} has been placed on negative outlook by Moody's.
  • No surprise here after mgmt issued a earnings warning for FY24 (ending march '24) EBITDA of £160m. VCPLN's 2 lines already price well wide (26/28's 13.6%/13.8%), thin liquidity, (b/a up to 2pts wide), with mgmt earlier disclosing there were "few holders prepared to sell at current levels" and hence proceeded to a €25m share buyback. Its purchase targets on the 26's are insignificant, planned asset sales also small.
  • Moody's outlook for FY25 is for continued weakness on the impact of interest rates on property market/reduced refurbishing activity. It does expect margin improvement driving higher operating profit through the year & sees positive FCF on WC improvements/lower inventory.
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