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VIEW: Analyst CPI Previews

CANADA
  • CIBC: Headline seen at 0.4% M/M for 4.1% Y/Y (-0.2pp) as the deceleration likely slowed on a modest monthly rebound in gasoline prices. Core (ex food & energy) inflation is seen at 0.2% M/M seasonally adjusted as large increases in travel from March reverse. Headline seen on its way to 2.5% Y/Y by early summer.
  • RBC: Headline seen at 4.1% Y/Y (-0.2pps). Y/Y growth for the CPI trim, median, and the new ‘super core’ services ex-shelter measure introduced in the BoC’s last MPR should all slow substantially as large monthly increases in April a year ago drop out.
  • Scotia: Headline seen rising 0.5% M/M NSA (4.2% Y/Y, -0.1pps) and note the seasonal adjustment factor isn’t much of an issue in April compared to other months. Gasoline should be fairly neutral on the month with services a significant contributor plus vehicles playing a minor role. There is a stronger case for the next nearer-term move being higher than lower. Inflation risk is pivoting higher in Canada over the coming months and quarters with more pent-up services demand in Canada than the US.
  • TD: Headline seen rising 0.5% M/M (4.2% Y/Y, -0.1pp). Gasoline will provide a key driver on the month, alongside a broad increase for core goods and steady pressure from services. Core inflation measures should also move 0.2pp lower to 4.3% on average, masking a modest pickup on a m/m (or 3m SAAR) basis to 0.4% M/M which could raise some alarms at the BoC.
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