VIEW: ANZ write "slower H2 2018 data prompted...>

RBA: VIEW: ANZ write "slower H2 2018 data prompted markets to start pricing in

an RBA rate cut over the coming year, with recent weakness in business

conditions and consumer confidence and a shift in the RBA's language adding

impetus to that shift. However, we believe the central bank will stay on hold in

2019 and 2020. Periods of low GDP growth have not always translated into higher

unemployment and RBA easing. The Bank is more focused on trends in the

unemployment rate and surprises on inflation than on GDP growth, as rate cut

triggers. As with the RBA's latest forecast, our ANZ Labour Market Indicator

(LMI) points to stability in unemployment over the next six months or so. With

interest rates at record lows, fiscal policy is the better tool for stimulating

the economy. And we expect the April Budget to be stimulatory."