VIEW: ANZ write "there are a lot of moving......>

RBA: VIEW: ANZ write "there are a lot of moving parts for the RBA to consider at

present, ranging from a deterioration in the global backdrop to the risk that

even lower interest rates will turn a recovery in house prices into a boom. We

think the RBA will judge that it has little choice but to ease further over the

coming year, as the impact of the sharp domestic slowdown feeds into the labour

market, and the Bank is forced to respond to global policy settings. If this

triggers a sharp lift in credit growth, we would expect other policy makers to

respond. We think the RBA will resume its easing cycle in October. We see the

cash rate hitting what we perceive to be the effective lower bound (ELB) of

0.25% by May 2020. At that point we think the Bank will signal that the cash

rate will stay at the ELB until there has been a material move lower in labour

market slack and a corresponding rise in wages and inflation. The RBA may have a

different view on the ELB. Regardless of whether the cash rate ends up at 0.25%

or a bit higher or lower, the key takeaway from developments this year is that

interest rates are set to stay low for a long time. This is what really matters,

in our view."