VIEW: Aussie Banks See June Job Gain Despite Outsized May Rise

Here are the key takeaways on the June employment outlook from the big 4 local banks.

• ANZ believes that strong population growth will drive a 25k increase in the number of jobs in June. It expects the unemployment rate to rise from 3.55% but still be 3.6% when rounded.
• CBA expects the unemployment rate to trend higher due to subtrend growth and increased labour supply. It expects June employment to rise 15k with the unemployment rate rising to 3.7%. CBA points out the rise in underemployment as a sign that the labour market is easing.
• Westpac expects an “around trend lift in employment of 25k” but they expect momentum to stall by year end. It notes that vacancies “have barely moderated” from their peak and “business surveys are only now beginning to more convincingly reflect an unfolding softening in labour demand”, thus there is a downside risk to its 2023 unemployment rate forecast of 4%. June unemployment should be steady at 3.6%.
• NAB notes that employment data have been very volatile recently and that June may also reflect that due to “less favourable sample rotation impacts”. It expects a 10k job gain and steady unemployment at 3.6%, which it observes is “broadly consistent with the RBA’s May SoMP”. It observes that labour market indicators are mixed but says that “there remains still elevated unmet labour demand”.