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VIEW: Barclays Look For Terminal 4.5% Before Potential Cuts 2H23

CANADA
  • Barclays expect a 75bp hike followed by 50bp to a likely terminal of 4.5%, but still open to a residual hike in January if inflation is stronger than the BoC expects.
  • The need to hike rapidly into restrictive territory opens the door for rate cuts in 2H23.
  • There are signs that the policy tightening is working its way through the economy as the data has deteriorated, including relative to the US.
  • Barclays remain moderately constructive on the CAD in the medium-term as USD strength is likely to eventually fade given expensive valuations.
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