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VIEW: CBA Now See First RBA Hike In June

RBA

CBA note they have shifted their “central scenario for the first hike in the cash rate target to June 2022 (from August 2022). We expect the RBA to move to an explicit hiking bias at the May 2022 Board meeting. Our forecast profile now has the cash rate at 1.0% by end‑2022 (a 15bp increase in June, followed by two 25bp increases in Q3 22 and a further 25bp in Q4 22). We expect one further 25bp rate hike in Q1 23 that takes the cash rate to 1.25% ‑ our estimate of the neutral cash rate. The significant fixed rate loan expiry schedule over the next two years means that we do not expect the RBA to take monetary policy into contractionary territory.”

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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