VIEW: CBA Outline Their Ideas Re: The Trajectory Of Monetary Policy

CBA note that " the RBA will take a more flexible approach to bond buying (QE) from early September when bond purchases will be at the reduced rate of $A4bn a week until at least mid‑November (as compared with the current pace of $A5bn per week). The RBA Board will next review the rate of bond purchases at the November Board meeting. We expect the RBA to announce a further taper at the November Board meeting and have pencilled in a rate of bond buying of $A3bn a week from mid‑November 2021 until mid‑February 2022. Bond purchases are expected to continue through to May 2022, but at a further reduced rate. Total bond purchases from mid‑November 2021 until mid‑May 2022 (i.e QE3) are expected to be a touch under $A100bn. Our central scenario remains that the RBA will commence normalising the cash rate in November 2022."