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VIEW CHANGE: Berenberg: 2x25bp hikes but elevated uncertainty

  • “Data-dependent meeting-by-meeting approach could indicate that the BoE does not fully endorse current market pricing for a peak in the bank rate of just above 6% in winter 2023/24.”
  • “We expect two more 25bp rate hikes on 3 August and 21 September. From the new starting level of 5%, that would lift the Bank rate to 5.5% by September, above our previous call for a 5.25% peak.”
  • “The risks to our call are largely balanced, in our view. If inflation surprises to the upside again in the coming months, the BoE may go further. However, if inflation moderates sufficiently and if employment and wage growth lose momentum, the BoE may not go beyond one final hike in August. As today’s 50bp hike suggests that the BoE wants to be decisive, it seems possible that the BoE will raise rates again by 50bp in August – and stop thereafter.”
  • “The more pain the BoE inflicts on mortgage holders now, the more it may have to take back later on. We now look for six instead of five BoE rate cuts next year to take the bank rate to 4% by the end of 2024” (up from 3.50% previously).

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