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BRIEF: ECB's Panetta-Time To Start Thinking Of NGEU Successor
View Change: GS looks for 50bp in Aug and Sep and 2.75% by year-end
- The “shift in communication came as a bit of a surprise. On the vote split, we had only expected two MPC members to vote for a 50bps hike, and had thought one member would prefer to keep Bank Rate on hold.”
- “We view the reference to scale/pace and the use of the term “forcefully” in the June MPC Minutes as suggesting that 50bps hikes are now under consideration for all committee members. Given three members voted for a 50bps increase in Bank Rate at the June meeting, it now seems a low hurdle for the majority of MPC members to agree to a 50bps hike at the next meeting.”
- “We now expect the MPC to vote for 50bps hikes in August and September. This would quickly take Bank Rate into contractionary territory, given our estimate that the neutral rate is 1.75%. We then expect 25bps hikes in November and December, taking Bank Rate to 2.75%. This boosts our terminal rate forecast from 2.5% to 2.75%.”
- GS had previously looked for 25bp hikes at each meeting through February 2023.
- “While the timing of asset sales remains uncertain, we continue to expect them to begin at the November MPC meeting.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.