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VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan adds Aug23 hike to 5.00% terminal rate

BOE
  • "We assume the BoE still won’t go back to 50bp hikes, even if the data are suggesting it ought to. But we continue to see a 25bp hike in June, and now look for a further 25bp hike in August taking rates to 5%. We see clear upside risk to this, depending on how our global views evolve in 2H23."
  • "We now see annually calculated core inflation accelerating above 7%oya in the next release. While only small, we even now have a brief rise in annual headline inflation back up to 8.8%oya in May. We expect headline around 5% by year end and core at 6%. We think there is a good case for the BoE to consider a 50bp in June. "
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