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VIEW CHANGE: MS raise terminal rate forecast to 5.25%

BOE
  • "We expect more hawkish guidance, and at least one vote for a 50bp move (Mann), but ultimately see a 25bp hike tomorrow."
  • "As a first step in response to today's data, we lift our terminal rate estimate to 5.25% now, expecting a tightening cycle lasting into September, with the MPC sticking to 25bp tightening clips. A 50bp move in August with a final hike in September is also possible, although, on balance, since we see a somewhat softer LFS ahead of the August meeting, we don't see a 50bp hike delivered."
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