MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

TRUDEAU SAYS IT LOOKS LIKE BOC WILL BE LOWERING RATE AGAIN

MNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

View Change: Nordea look for 1.75% by year-end

RIKSBANK
  • Nordea's base case is for a 50bp hike next week.
  • "A rate hike of 75bp cannot be ruled out on 30 June. Another possible scenario is that the rate is hiked between the ordinary monetary policy meetings, for example in mid-August after inflation data"
  • Nordea notes that developments since the April MPR are "more similar to the Riksbank’s alternative scenario in its April report where inflation is rising rapidly and is of a more sustained nature. The scenario includes a rate hike to 1.50% by the turn of the year and a repo rate of around 2.5% by the end of 2023."
  • "The exchange rate is a dilemma. On the one hand, the krona may weaken if the Riksbank does not hike rates in line with market expectations. On the other hand, rapid rate hikes may break the housing market and undermine confidence in the Swedish economy."
  • Look for further 50bp hikes in September and November (previously had looked for 25bp in November). Subsequently look for the Riksbank on hold next year.
  • "A decline in the housing market and households under pressure are important reasons for us to expect that the Riksbank will keep the policy rate unchanged next year."
  • "Also expect the Riksbank to reduce the balance sheet faster than previously announced. In our forecast we do not expect any maturing bonds to be reinvested as from Q3 this year."
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.