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VIEW CHANGE: Nordea look for 3.25% by March 2023

NORGES BANK
  • Further to this morning's update that Nordea looked for a 50bp hike in August (following the high core inflation figures released this morning), Nordea also now look for a 50bp hike in September and then follow this "with 25bp hikes the next four meetings leaving the key rate at 3.25% by March 2023."
  • Nordea notes that today's inflation print "illustrates that price pressures in the economy is stronger and more broad based than Norges Bank thought... underlying inflation could easily be running around 0.5 percentage point above Norges Bank’s forecast for the rest of the year on average and into next year"
  • "Norges Bank has been behind the curve for a long time, using uncertainty about the effects of the rate hikes as an excuse. They no longer have that luxury. While faster rate hikes increases the chances of a hard landing of the economy, acting too slow increases the chances that inflation and inflation expectations get entrenched. Norges Bank’s main goal is low and stable inflation. That goal is now at the forefront for both Norges Bank and most other central banks."

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