Free Trial

VIEW CHANGE: TD Securities: 5.75% terminal rate with 200bp cuts in 2024

  • “We now expect three more 25bp hikes in Bank Rate, taking it to 5.75% in November. As policy tightening catches up to the real economy.”
  • “We think further 50bps hikes are unlikely, unless the data continues to surprise sharply to the upside. In our view, the lack of shift in communication today keeps 25bps hikes as the "default" increment. Data will determine otherwise.”
  • “It's possible that an even higher terminal rate is required. But with each further hike in Bank Rate comes a housing market that gets closer and closer to the brink.”
  • “We now expect rate cuts to begin February 2024 as the economy is likely to show some sharp slowing into the winter, with 200bps of cuts in the first year of easing. Unlike many central banks, we don't expect the BoE to be able to hold rates at terminal for long at all as a toxic mix of high inflation and weak growth takes hold.”

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.