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MNI JAPAN JULY TOKYO CORE CPI +2.2% Y/Y; JUNE +2.1%

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VIEW CHANGE: TD Securities: 5.75% terminal rate with 200bp cuts in 2024

BOE
  • “We now expect three more 25bp hikes in Bank Rate, taking it to 5.75% in November. As policy tightening catches up to the real economy.”
  • “We think further 50bps hikes are unlikely, unless the data continues to surprise sharply to the upside. In our view, the lack of shift in communication today keeps 25bps hikes as the "default" increment. Data will determine otherwise.”
  • “It's possible that an even higher terminal rate is required. But with each further hike in Bank Rate comes a housing market that gets closer and closer to the brink.”
  • “We now expect rate cuts to begin February 2024 as the economy is likely to show some sharp slowing into the winter, with 200bps of cuts in the first year of easing. Unlike many central banks, we don't expect the BoE to be able to hold rates at terminal for long at all as a toxic mix of high inflation and weak growth takes hold.”
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