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View Change: TD Securities: Hike in June the last of 2022

BOE
  • “The softening in guidance language today is consistent with an MPC that still has another hike or two in mind (in particular 3 MPC members see the need for more tightening than this, so it would only take 2 of the remaining 6 to support an additional hike). We expect the MPC to hike one more time at their June meeting this year, before a long pause as they consider active Gilt sales from August. Subsequent hikes are not expected until 2023, at a very gradual pace of two hikes per year before reaching the terminal rate of 1.75% in August 2023.”
  • TD Securities had previously expected the May hike to be the last of the year (with a pause until February 2023).
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