MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Let Powell Serve Full Term-Moore

MNI BRIEF: Canada Household Debt Tops $3 Trillion In 3Q

MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Allow Powell To Serve Term - Moore

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Stabilising Housing Market - CEWC

MNI BRIEF: China Focus On Boosting Consumption In 2025

MNI BRIEF: China To Cut Rates, Boost Borrowing-Work Conference

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +17K TO 242K IN DEC 07 WK

MNI: US NOV FINAL DEMAND PPI +0.4%, EX FOOD, ENERGY +0.2%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

VIEW CHANGE: TDS look for first cut in August and more gradual cuts

BOE
  • "April inflation surprised materially to the upside... We expect almost all the shock to be persistent, and subsequently revise up our inflation forecast through the rest of this year."
  • "We now look for an August start to the MPC's rate cut cycle, with a more gradual rate of cuts through 2025."
  • TDS now "expect the BoE to cut in August, November, and December 2024. Next year, we look for a quarterly pace of cuts (Feb/May/Aug/Nov) until Bank Rate returns to its long-run nominal neutral rate of 3.00% in 2026H1."
  • Previously TDS had looked for the first cut in June with sequential 25bp cuts Sep24-Feb25 before reverting to a quarterly pace and reaching 3.00% in Q1-26.
  • "In terms of what surprised even our strong services forecast to the upside, it was mainly down to restaurants and cultural services... Part of this strength was probably some payback from the weak March print, but we unwind only a small amount of this surprise in our early May projections."
  • "In terms of cultural services, prices rose by a notable 4.3% m/m (TDS: 2.0%), largely due to a substantial increase in television and radio license fees. Since this is an annual price increase, there is no scope for unwind in this component over the next twelve months."
  • "This pushes up our forecast for headline inflation up by about 0.2ppts over the rest of this year, and our forecast for core inflation by an even stronger 0.25ppts through the year."
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeCreditData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.