VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "a combination.....>

US: VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "a combination of tighter state restrictions &

voluntary social distancing is already having a noticeable impact on econ

activity...The healthy rebound in consumer services spending seen since mid-Apr

now appears likely to stall in Jul & Aug as authorities impose further

restrictions to contain COVID-19. The ongoing recovery in m'fing & construction

should be largely unaffected. We do not believe that the consumer comeback has

reached its limits, and we expect the US econ to get back on track in Sep for 2

reasons. 1st, other major econs have returned to similar levels of activity

while containing the virus. 2nd, policy & behavioral changes such as

mask-wearing offer ops for controlling the virus at minimal econ cost... We have

revised our GDP forecast to reflect these developments. A pause in the consumer

services sector in Jul & Aug should limit the Q3 rebound to 25% Q/Q annualized,

vs. 33% in our previous forecast. Our forecast now implies -4.6% GDP growth in

'20 (prev. -4.2%) & +5.8% growth in '21 (prev. +5.8%). Following another large

decline in the unemployment rate in June reported last week, we have nudged our

unemployment rate forecast down to 9% by the end of '20 (prev. 9.5%)."