VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "a surge in...>

US TSYS: VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "a surge in COVID-19 cases in several

southern & western states in the US has resulted in concerns about the econ

recovery... We see 3 reasons why rising US case counts are unlikely to translate

into renewed lockdowns throughout the largest parts of the country. 1st, the

recent outbreak is concentrated in regions which experienced little community

transmission in Feb & Mar and may have not yet adopted standard mitigation

efforts like widespread mask wearing. 2nd, the testing expansion has inflated

the case growth numbers to an extent. 3rd, the demographics of the outbreak have

changed, with more young people becoming infected & fewer older adults. Likely

reflecting the changing demographics as well as the testing expansion, the

recent rise in confirmed covid cases has not translated into a commensurate rise

in fatalities. Despite these caveats, news of increasing cases could affect

consumer sentiment & behavior, and translate to not just an impact on growth,

but also weigh on risk sentiment. However, because the Fed is unlikely to reopen

the lower bound discussion as of now, the space for further yield declines

remains ltd; the -ve asymmetry to owning duration remains."