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VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "the.....>

POLISH ZLOTY
POLISH ZLOTY: VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "the Polish Zloty was one of the top
performers among EM currencies last week as it caught up with its CEE-3 peers on
the back of the positive news surrounding the EU Recovery Plan. Due to its
high-beta to the Euro Area, even if the proposal were to work out net neutral
for Poland, we still expect the currency to benefit in the near-term from the
positive developments in the region, both in the politics and in activity - as
high-frequency Euro area data shows a continued pick up. Even as the Zloty was
forging ahead, the positive momentum was arrested by yesterday's surprise 40bp
cut to a record low of 0.10%. Going forward, our economists expect this to be
the trough in rates, which will remain until 2022, yet further quantitative
easing remains a possibility. Despite the dovish surprise, in our view, EURPLN
is likely to trade close to but below the 4.50 level going forward and, we
revise our 3, 6 and 12m forecasts to 4.40, 4.30 and 4.20 from 4.65, 4.50 and
4.35 previously."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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