VIEW: ING Still Look For One More Hike In Sep

In the wake of today’s DMP survey ING note that “the bottom line is that the Bank is likely to hike rates by 25 basis points again in two weeks, but our base case is that this is the last hike in this tightening cycle. Governor Andrew Bailey's indication that we're near the top of the tightening cycle came wrapped with several caveats. But it fits into a broader communication exercise from the Bank that appears to be laying the ground for a pause.”

• “Chief Economist Huw Pill's reference to a "table mountain" profile for rates gave a further indication that the Bank is now more concerned about how long rates stay elevated rather than how high they peak. References to policy now being "restrictive" in the August policy statement pointed in this direction too.”
• “A November hike is possible, but assuming we're right about the direction of the dataflow and on the basis of recent BoE comments, we think a pause is still more likely at that meeting.”