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VIEW: J.P.Morgan Still Look For Shallow Hiking Cycle

THAILAND

In the wake of Wednesday’s 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Thailand J.P.Morgan note that “between the three policy objectives of supporting economic growth, maintaining price stability and preserving financial stability, the BoT remains focused on managing inflationary pressures. We continue to expect a gradual policy normalization cycle, i.e. raising the policy rate by 25bp in September and November, bringing the policy rate to 1.25% by the year-end. Although this is slightly below our neutral rate estimate range of about 1.50-1.80%, we opt to delay baking in further tightening beyond 2022, especially if the recent downshift in global growth momentum persists.”

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In the wake of Wednesday’s 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Thailand J.P.Morgan note that “between the three policy objectives of supporting economic growth, maintaining price stability and preserving financial stability, the BoT remains focused on managing inflationary pressures. We continue to expect a gradual policy normalization cycle, i.e. raising the policy rate by 25bp in September and November, bringing the policy rate to 1.25% by the year-end. Although this is slightly below our neutral rate estimate range of about 1.50-1.80%, we opt to delay baking in further tightening beyond 2022, especially if the recent downshift in global growth momentum persists.”