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US TSYS: VIEW: Late Friday saw J.P.Morgan note that "though we have downgraded
our economic outlook into 2021, front-end breakevens remain priced for a very
slow rebound in inflation and have underperformed versus nominal Treasuries,
oil, and credit in recent weeks. While we think clarity from the Fed on the
ongoing pace of asset purchases and calendar-based forward guidance would have
limited impacts on TIPS markets, guidance tied to an inflation target (e.g,
Evans rule) could push real yields lower, especially in the 5- to 10-year sector
of the curve. Escalating US-China trade tensions have increased risks of tariff
hikes and contributed to the outperformance of TIPS in the 2- to 3-year part of
the curve, and Apr-22s now appear substantially rich relative to Apr-24s. We
recommend initiating Apr-22s/Apr-24s real yield curve flatteners."