VIEW: Macquarie write "we now expect the RBA....>

RBA: VIEW: Macquarie write "we now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 50bps

to 1% this year rather than keep the stance of policy unchanged indefinitely.

Markets have 30bps of cuts priced in and one 25bp cut fully priced by late this

year. Picking the timing of rate cuts is a little tricky. If the Bank sticks

with Statement months to change policy then May or August is our best bet for

the initial easing. A May cut may be too soon if the Bank feels it wants more

clarity on the dataflow (particularly the labour market) and it would be just

prior to the federal election, though we aren't sure that would be a relevant

issue for the Bank. The main catalyst for the change of view is that we cannot

see what the downside risks are to easing policy further. Take the path of least

regret."