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RIKSBANK: VIEW: Nordea See No More Rate Cuts

RIKSBANK
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Nordea do not expect any more Riksbank rate cuts through December 2026, with the January final inflation report prompting a notable upward revision of their inflation forecast. Their previous Riksbank forecast was for a final 25bp cut to 2.00% in May.

  • “Our revised inflation path is above the Riksbank’s forecast and well above the 2% target, underlining that the Riksbank is done cutting rates”.
  • “Unemployment was very high in January, but we see the reading as an outlier. Other hard data and indicators, such as SPES’ figures and NIER’s Tendency Survey, rather point to a stabilisation of the labour market situation”.
  • “The SEK has strengthened recently and conditions are in place for further appreciation, albeit gradually”.
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Nordea do not expect any more Riksbank rate cuts through December 2026, with the January final inflation report prompting a notable upward revision of their inflation forecast. Their previous Riksbank forecast was for a final 25bp cut to 2.00% in May.

  • “Our revised inflation path is above the Riksbank’s forecast and well above the 2% target, underlining that the Riksbank is done cutting rates”.
  • “Unemployment was very high in January, but we see the reading as an outlier. Other hard data and indicators, such as SPES’ figures and NIER’s Tendency Survey, rather point to a stabilisation of the labour market situation”.
  • “The SEK has strengthened recently and conditions are in place for further appreciation, albeit gradually”.