VIEW: On Friday TD pushed back its call for....>

RBNZ: VIEW: On Friday TD pushed back its call for the first RBNZ hike in the

cycle to November 2019 from May 2019.

- TD noted that "on August 9, the RBNZ surprised the markets with the most

dovish tone in years. After a short reconnaissance to Wellington, we better

understand the Bank's concerns about slowing growth and inability to lift

inflation back to target. In a Statement that surprised even the most dovish

analysts, the Bank needs to see a pickup in growth and inflation to prevent a

cut, not trigger a rate hike as previously thought. The risk of an OCR cut has

shifted from near-zero to around 30%. As we remain more constructive about the

outlook for New Zealand, we need to see substantial growth and/or inflation

disappointment to push the first hike into 2020."