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VIEW: Scotia On CPI

CANADA
  • Scotiabank are again at the top end of consensus, looking for headline CPI of 0.7% M/M NSA with the Y/Y easing from 5.2% to 4.5% Y/Y.
  • They see it as compatible to that implied by the BoC’s recently quarterly projection at 5.4% Y/Y in Q1 (after 5.9% in Jan and 5.2% in Feb).
  • Scotia will watch M/M changes in CPI-trim and median plus the simpler CPI ex food & energy which they find more closely aligns with output gaps and CPI over time.
  • On housing pressures: “As Canada pushes immigration much higher into a market with little to no supply it is likely to challenge the BoC’s views on the impact upon inflation. The BoC assumes that higher immigration adds to both the supply and demand sides of the economy, but Canada’s housing market notoriously takes on demand first and supply reacts with long lags. The likely effect is to add to renewed house price and rent pressures that could resume flowing through to CPI.”
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