MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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VIEW: Scotia On CPI

CANADA
  • Scotiabank are again at the top end of consensus, looking for headline CPI of 0.7% M/M NSA with the Y/Y easing from 5.2% to 4.5% Y/Y.
  • They see it as compatible to that implied by the BoC’s recently quarterly projection at 5.4% Y/Y in Q1 (after 5.9% in Jan and 5.2% in Feb).
  • Scotia will watch M/M changes in CPI-trim and median plus the simpler CPI ex food & energy which they find more closely aligns with output gaps and CPI over time.
  • On housing pressures: “As Canada pushes immigration much higher into a market with little to no supply it is likely to challenge the BoC’s views on the impact upon inflation. The BoC assumes that higher immigration adds to both the supply and demand sides of the economy, but Canada’s housing market notoriously takes on demand first and supply reacts with long lags. The likely effect is to add to renewed house price and rent pressures that could resume flowing through to CPI.”
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