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VIEW: TD Revises Up Rate Forecast To 4.85%

RBA

TD Securities has revised up its OCR forecast to 4.85% due to the very tight labour market and the risk that higher inflation will become entrenched in expectations given poor productivity growth and rising wages. It expects 25bp hikes at the July, August and September meetings.

  • Senior APAC rates strategist Newnaha noted that "The RBA estimated the neutral rate to be around 3.80 per cent in March, but the uplift in population growth assumptions and the tighter labour market have likely shifted the RBA's neutral cash rate estimate higher."
  • “Whether the RBA takes the cash rate above 5% will be dependent on how quickly the stock of excess savings is run down.”
    - Bloomberg/The Australian
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