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RBNZ: VIEW: Westpac now expect the OCR to start rising in November 2020
(previously May 2020), and to rise more slowly than previously forecast.
- Westpac write that "on the inflation front, we are hearing increasing concerns
about costs, and wage inflation is clearly picking up. This and other signs of
burgeoning inflation pressures have seen us lift our inflation forecast. But
competition in the retail sector and falling prices in areas the government
controls, such as tertiary education, are large offsetting forces. Overall we
expect inflation to remain fairly contained at around two percent for the coming
few years. Compared to our previous forecasts, we've made an unusual set of
changes - we have increased our GDP growth and inflation forecasts, while at the
same time reducing our OCR and exchange rate forecasts. The changes to the
Reserve Bank Act square the circle. It is becoming clearer that the central
bank's behaviour has changed - it will keep the OCR low for longer than the RBNZ
of old, even as inflation rises to 2%. If the OCR stays low for longer,
inflation and growth will rise higher in the short run."